Friday, August 13, 2010

Consensus Top 75 (76) for 2010

A few weeks ago I posted the Top 60 for 2010 based on a set of 7 different rankings of fantasy experts. For my top 76, I've expanded that out to include 3 more rankings making for a grand total of 10 different sets of fantasy rankings that I was working with. For this set, a player had to receive 6 "votes" in order to be added to the list.

Two players ended up getting their 6th vote on the same line when I had one more slot to fill at 75, which is why it is actually 76 and not 75.

1. Chris Johnson, RB TEN

2. Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAC
4. Ray Rice, RB BAL
5. Frank Gore, RB SF
6. Michael Turner, RB ATL
7. Andre Johnson, WR HOU
8. Drew Brees, QB NO
9. Steven Jackson, RB STL
10. Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
11. Randy Moss, WR NE
12. DeAngelo Williams, RB CAR
13. Rashard Mendenhall, RB PIT
14. Peyton Manning, QB IND
15. Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
16. Shonn Green, RB NYJ
17. Cederic Benson, RB CIN
18. Ryan Grant, RB GB
19. Reggie Wayne, WR IND
20. Ryan Matthews, RB SD
21. Jamaal Charles, RB KC
22. Roddy White, WR ATL
23. Calvin Johnson, WR DET
24. Tom Brady, QB NE

There were not too many dramatic shifts in the top 24 from this group of rankings to the last. The biggest riser was Michael Turner who moved from 8th overall to 6th, which is a fairly dramatic shift when you talk in terms of drafting him or Andre Johnson or Drew Brees. The biggest faller was Steven Jackson, he went from ranked 6th last time to number 9th in these rankings.

25. Miles Austin, WR DAL
26. Brandon Marshall, WR MIA
27. Beanie Wells, RB ARI
28. Knowshown Moreno, RB DEN
29. Greg Jennings, WR GB
30. Marques Colston, WR NO
31. Tony Romo, QB DAL
32. Lesean McCoy, RB PHI
33. Pierre Thomas, RB NO
34. Desean Jackson, WR PHI
35. Matt Schuab, QB HOU
36. Philip Rivers, QB SD
37. Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
38. Steve Smith, WR CAR
39. Steve Smith, WR NYG
40. Anquon Boldin, WR ARI
41. Joseph Addai, RB IND
42. Dallas Clark, TE IND
43. Sidney Rice, WR MIN
44. Matt Forte, RB CHI
45. Antonio Gates, TE SD
46. Ronnie Brown, RB MIA
47. Chad OchoCinco, WR CIN
48. Mike Simms-Walker, WR JAC

The next 24 (25-48) saw a few more dramatic changes. It is unclear if the rankings had accounted for Knowshown Moreno's hamstring injury (I suspect not). The risers in this group were Marques Colston (+3), LeSean McCoy (+5), Pierre Thomas (+3) and Steve Smith from the NY Giants (+6). The biggest faller of the group was by far Sidney Rice, WR from Minnesota. He ranking reflects the uncertainty of Brett Favre's return. Rice fell 11 spots from 32nd last time to 43rd this time.

The other interesting thing to note here is that certain players in every ranking system fall into a very short and specific range. For example, Marques Colston's highest ranking was 26 and his lowest was 35. Most guys not named Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson don't have that short of a range. Take Matt Forte for example, his highest ranking was 27th and lowest was 90th. That is a dramatic shift. So, one thing this ranking comparison does is it gives you a feel for where some guys are slotted by everyone across the board. By the end, you know that if you are targeting Colston or OchoCinco, you'll probably have to take them in the 3rd or 4th round. But a guy like forte might slip to the 5th or 6th round despite the fact that he's currently rated as a 4th rounder.

49. Vernon Davis, TE SF

50. Michael Crabtree, WR SF
51. Brandon Jacobs, RB NYG
52. Felix Jones, RB DAL
53. Javid Best, RB DET
54. Dwayne Bowe, WR KC
55. Hines Ward, WR PIT
56. *Vincent Jackson, WR SD
57. Justin Forsett, RB SEA
58. Marion Barber, RB DAL
59. Donald Driver, WR GB
60. Percy Harvin, WR MIN
61. Jerome Harrison, RB CLE
62. Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG
63. CJ Spiller, RB BUF
64. Pierre Garcon, WR IND
65. Ricky Williams, RB MIA
66. Brent Celek, TE PHI
67. Tony Gonzalez, TE ATL
68. Jermichael Finley, TE GB
69. Cadillac Williams, RB TB
70. Mike Wallace, WR PIT
71. Jay Cutler, QB CHI
72. Clinton Portis, RB WAS
73. Jason Witten, TE DAL
74. Wes Welker, WR NE
75. Eli Manning, QB NYG
76. Santana Moss, WR WAS

*suspended first three games

The final grouping (49-76) saw some interesting shifts and changes. It is interesting to note here that of my original top 60 rankings, only two players, Ricky Williams (-12 spots) and Brent Celek (-7 spots) failed to once again crack the top 60 of this set of rankings. I will watch with great interest when I do my third set of rankings to see how far the needle moves inside the top 60. This will give you a really good idea for who to target beyond round 6. If members of your league start drafting players outside this grouping and you can land a few more top 60 players, you might be wise to do it, particuarly at the QB and TE position.

Desipite the fact that he is suspended for the first 3 games and is threatening to hold out the first 10 weeks of the season, Vincent Jackson actually moved up one spot from 57 to 56. He is the only suspended player to make the top 75 (76).

Some other interesting shifts include Vernon Davis (+5) and Felix Jones (-9). Jones is interesting because his drop moves him from a 4th round value last time (43) to now a solid 5th rounder (52).

The overall breakdown for this set of rankings is as follows:

RB 32
WR 28
QB 9
TE 7

This will probably be my last set of rankings for a few weeks. The preseason kicks off in full swing this weekend so pay attention to how players are performing and what injuries go down.

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